Sell indicators

http://www.nifs.net.au/articles/whyshares.htm

The selling indicators suggested are:

• Seven years from the previous peak;
• When the index has climbed to three times the previous low; or
• When share prices rise above the underlying values that justify the price. This may be when average Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios have increased to 23. Ordinaries Index is 23 times the average dividend earnings.

Stock Selection

http://www.stockmarket.co.nz/SSM3.htm

The "Small Company Effect"
Younger investors (who have a long term investment "horizon" and who can afford to take some extra risk) should invest part of their portfolio in some of the "smallest" companies listed on the sharemarket. Older investors (seeking to minimise risk) should aim to invest in shares below the top 10-20% by size as these offer better returns than the very largest listed companies.

Sharebroker "Neglect", Institutional "Neglect"
All investors should therefore seek to own shares that are "neglected" by brokers and have few (or no) institutional shareholders - while avoiding companies "followed" by many brokers and where many institutions already hold significant shareholdings.

"Under-valued" Shares
All investors should seek low P/S (Price/Sales), low P/E and high Yielding shares, while avoiding high P/S, high P/E and low Yielding shares.

"Insider" Buying and Selling, Share Re-purchases
A "buy" signal was considered to have occurred when three "insiders" bought shares within one month, while three sellers within a month constituted a "sell" signal.

Certainly investors should tend to favour Australian shares where several "insiders" have purchased shares during the last year.Share re-purchases are relatively rare, but can lead to excellent investment returns over the following couple of years - especially among the very "smallest" companies!

Relative Price Strength
Compare the current share price to its "26 week moving average". If higher, hold. Otherwise, sell.

Housing recovery soon: HIA - May 28, 2009

http://business.smh.com.au/business/housing-recovery-soon-hia-20090528-bobs.html

The Housing Industry Association is forecasting a recovery in the housing market will begin mid-year.

Given the outlook for a modest rather than significant recovery in new home building, the shortfall between dwelling completions and underlying demand will exceed 50,000 dwellings per annum for some years to come

How to make Windows Vista boot faster

services.msc

remove as Automatic:

Application Experience

Application Layer Gateway Service

Certificate Propagation

COM+ System Application

DFS Replication

Diagnostic Policy Service

Diagnostic Service Host

Diagnostic System Host

Distributed Link Tracking Client

Distributed Transaction Coordinator

FLEXnet Licensing Service

Function Discovery Provider Host

Google Software Updater

Google Update Service

GoToAssist

Health Key and Certificate Management

Human Interface Device Access

IKE and AuthIP IPsec Keying Modules

Interactive Services Detection

Internet Connection Sharing (ICS)

IP Helper

IPsec Policy Agent

KtmRm for Distributed Transaction

Link-Layer Topology Discovery

Microsoft .NET Framework

Microsoft iSCSI Initiator Service

Microsoft Office Diagnostics Service

Microsoft Software Shadow Copy

Net.Tcp Port Sharing Service

Netlogon

Network Access Protection Agent

Office Source Engine

Parental Controls

Peer Name Resolution Protocol

Peer Networking Grouping

Peer Networking Identity Manager

Performance Logs & Alerts

PnP-X IP Bus Enumerator

PNRP Machine Name

Problem Reports and Solutions

Protected Storage

Quality Windows Audio Video Experience

Remote Access Auto Connection Manager

Remote Procedure Call (RPC)

Remote Registry

Routing and Remote Accesss

Secondary Logon

SL UI Notification Service

Smart Card

Smart Card Removal Policy

SNMP Trap

stllssvr

SupportSoft Sprocket Service

Table PC Input Service

Terminal Services

Terminal Services Configuration

Thread Ordering Server

Virtual Disk

Volume Shadow Copy

Windows Backup

Windows CardSpace

Windows Color System

Windows Connect Now

Windows Error Reporting Service

Windows Event Collector

Windows Search

Windows Installer

Windows Media Player

Windows Modules Installer

Windows Presentation Foundation

Windows Remote Management

Wired AutoConfig

WMI Performance Adapter

msconfig

-> Boot -> Advanced options -> number of processors -> 2

cleanup

defragmenter

Investment rules

Debt to income ratio (DTR)

- 40 to 50%

- e.g. Monthly liabilities: $3,500. Monthly income: $10,000. 35% DTR

Debt to equity ratio

- 70 to 80%

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

- Warren Buffett aims for 15%

- Gross rental yield of 6% in Australia. Best was in Darlington of 8.6% in July 2008.

http://www.realestate.com.au/doc/review/july08/inner-city-yields.htm

- When looking at net rental yield, the interest is calculated on loan amount whereas rent and strata levies are calculated on the total value of the property

Investing in a fund of funds

Alternative - Global Hedge Funds

http://www.investsmart.com.au/managed-funds/find-managed-funds.asp?5StarMS=1&4StarMS=1&3StarMS=1&5StarSP=1&4StarSP=1&3StarSP=1&FundName=&APIRCode=&FundSectorID=ZZG03XZYG&FundManagerID=SHOWALL&FundLegalTypeID=1&MER=0&MinInitialInvestment=0&CountryID=AU&OrderBy=RatingMorningstar%2C+FundName&OrderByDesc=1

Alternative - Global Long/short

http://www.investsmart.com.au/managed-funds/Winton-Global-Alpha-Fund-15811.asp

Alternative - Australia Hedge Funds

http://www.investsmart.com.au/managed-funds/Macquarie-Australian-Equity-Income-Fund-14275.asp

Alternative - Australia Private Equity

None!

Peter Spann Strategy for property investing

This is Peter Spanns '7 years to retirement' stratergie in a nutshell.

1/ Buy IP with basic renotation potential.
2/ Renovate property
3/ Draw down 'new instant equity'
4/ use as deposit on next IP
5/ Do it all again

6/ At some point, wait a year, draw down new equity and invest into '7 power performing selection critera shares' or now he pushes quality managed funds or write covered calls
7/ use income from these shares/covered calls to offset interest only loans on IP's
8/ increase rent
9/ once servicability allows, and equity is avaliable purchase another IP
10/ keep doing this till you develop enough income to replace your '9-5' job income or more.

On the surface this stratergie looks good, but in practice I can see flaws in it. Firstly the ability to pay the interest, your constantly re-drawing equity, increasing your debt. Sure you increase rents, but these increases never seem to be enough to cover these extra borrowings unless you wait years for the rents to catch up.

Peter Spann's user ID:

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/member.php?u=3097